Attribution: deterministic vs. last-click measurement

by admin on May 24, 2021


Attribution modeling is a framework for analyzing which touchpoints, or marketing channels, receive credit for a conversion, for example, changing a browsing customer into a buyer. Each attribution model distributes the value of a conversion differently. Many marketers rely on flawed, outdated attribution models, one of which is the the most relied-upon last-click, most likely because it’s easy to understand and implement. Practiced for a long time on the direct mail slide, deterministic measurement is fast becoming favored in the digital world. It is essentially an experimentation scheme that quantifies the true impact of marketing spend. 

Also simple to use, Last-click measurement is a method in which marketers assign credit to a media campaign for driving conversion when a consumer clicks on an advertisement or link and then converts (buys) in the same session on the same device. However, it has it’s shortcomings:

*Inaccuracy: Most consumers are exposed to a variety of advertising touches over time. Their buying journey extends across different devices, browsers, and sessions. These factors mean last-click measurement often assigns too much credit to the final touch and too little credit across all the other advertising touches.

*Doesn’t reflect true acquisition cost:Some consumers will convert without any exposure to additional advertising. Last-click measurement doesn’t account for this reality, which means the customer acquisition cost reported by this attribution method will not reflect the true cost.

*Impairs long-term growth: Last-click measurement is a conservative attribution methodology that limits marketing campaign costs at the expense of business growth.

Deterministic measurement is a means of attribution where target audiences are defined by personally identifiable information before being segmented into homogenous test and control groups. Once separated, these groups can be activated via various media and the results are measured using personally identifiable transactional data. Let’s look at the benefits:

*Measures causation vs. correlation:It establishes why people actually convert and leaves no doubt by proving causation.

*Accurately reflects true acquisition cost: To know the true cost of acquisition, a marketer must know the incremental effect of their campaigns––if someone would have become a customer if the campaigns didn’t exist. Deterministic measurement is the only way to illustrate the incremental impact of advertising.

*Accommodates all conversion types:Deterministic measurement can be applied across multiple conversion types, including ecommerce, in-store and call center. This alleviates blind spots created by last-click measurement.

*Informs modeling and optimization: Deterministic measurement is a critical component of the iterative multivariate modeling process required to drive campaign performance and scale over time.

To actually start seeing better success with your campaigns, knowledge of implementing a deterministic strategy is required. Creative Solutions can help by starting to solve identity. Without a strong identity layer that can move with people as they float between offline and online channels, deterministic measurement can’t work. We can offer both deterministic and probabilistic methods of identity management, which encompass key consumer identifiers, such as name, contact data, cookie IDs, mobile advertising IDs and IP address.

Once identity is solved, use the data obtained to measure every campaign and every channel to the highest possible standards. Among other things, strive to determine what the incremental return on investment was, and follow through with an in-depth analysis of the value and quality of the acquired customers.

Call 302.234.4901 or email us today to explore how we can help you.

Source: Zeta Global

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